The dairy production system in the north of Sweden under possible future food scenarios

Sammanfattning

Context: The dairy production system fills an important role by providing nutrient-dense foods in Swedish diets, however, future efforts to improve its sustainability necessitate structural changes. Objective: We present an innovative study which assesses the effects of these future changes in the dairy system in northern Sweden, the Norrland region, which has a subarctic climate. Methods: Four scenarios were developed: 1) Food as Industry: Food is a commodity, and its production is an industry that can be invested in to benefit society. 2) Food as Technology: New technologies, such as nutrient density trackers and microbiome mapping, are used for personalized dietary plans. Additionally, novel foods from microbial cultures are produced. 3) Food as Culture: More locally produced food and diverse food products are consumed. 4) Food Forgotten: Land previously used for food and feed is converted to bioenergy production, climate mitigation, and adaptation infrastructure. These scenarios were compared to the baseline i.e. present dairy system for dairy production capacity, carbon flow and carbon footprint. Results and conclusions: Food as industry resulted in increased dairy production capacity with decreased carbon footprint but increased carbon imports. Food as technology provided decreased dairy production capacity and increased carbon footprint but with decreased carbon imports. Food as culture, maintained dairy production capacity with a decreased carbon footprint and carbon imports. Food forgotten resulted in decreased dairy production capacity and increased carbon imports but with decreased carbon footprint. Food as culture benefits all- specifically dairy production capacity, carbon footprint and carbon imports. However, further research is required to explore implications on soil organic carbon stocks over time in Norrland. Significance: Our study sheds light on the potential impacts of future dairy production in a subarctic climate and aims to help in decision making.

Nyckelord

Dairy production; Carbon footprint; Carbon flow; Food system

Publicerad i

Agricultural Systems
2025, volym: 222, artikelnummer: 104177
Utgivare: ELSEVIER SCI LTD

SLU författare

• Managos, Markos

  • Institutionen för tillämpad husdjursvetenskap och välfärd, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

• Lindberg, Mikaela

  • Institutionen för tillämpad husdjursvetenskap och välfärd, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

UKÄ forskningsämne

Livsmedelsvetenskap
Husdjursvetenskap
Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap

Publikationens identifierare

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104177

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/139416