Effects of climate change on biomass production and substitution in north-central Sweden

Sammanfattning

In this study we estimate the effects of climate change on forest production in north-central Sweden, as well as the potential climate change mitigation feedback effects of the resulting increased carbon stock and forest product use. Our results show that an average regional temperature rise of 4 degrees C over the next 100 years may increase annual forest production by 33% and potential annual harvest by 32%, compared to a reference case without climate change. This increased biomass production, if used to substitute fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials, can result in a significant net carbon emission reduction. We find that carbon stock in forest biomass, forest soils, and wood products also increase, but this effect is less significant than biomass substitution. A total net reduction in carbon emissions of up to 104 Tg of carbon can occur over 100 years, depending on harvest level and reference fossil fuel. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nyckelord

Climate change; Forest production; Biomass substitution; Climate feedback; Sweden

Publicerad i

Biomass and Bioenergy
2011, volym: 35, nummer: 10, sidor: 4340-4355
Utgivare: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD

SLU författare

• Bergh, Johan

  • Institutionen för sydsvensk skogsvetenskap, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    
  • Mittuniversitetet

• Lundström, Anders

  • Institutionen för skoglig resurshushållning, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

• Hyvönen, Riitta

  • Institutionen för ekologi, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
    

Associerade SLU-program

SLU Future Forests

Globala målen (SDG)

SDG12 Hållbar konsumtion och produktion
SDG13 Bekämpa klimatförändringarna

UKÄ forskningsämne

Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap
Skogsvetenskap
Förnyelsebar bioenergi

Publikationens identifierare

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2011.08.005

Permanent länk till denna sida (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/58732